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Saturday, 22 September 2018
Market Report


Market Report September 2018
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General Oils and Fats complex

Soybean Oil

The prediction for the harvest size of the US crop is increasing day to day. Experts estimate a record harvest of soybeans. The pressure on the price will get stronger by the progression of the season. However, prices still get supported by the demand of the energy industry. In Europe prices for Rapeseed get supported by the high demand of the Bio fuel industry and thus also the Soybean oil price is supported. Last week Argentina announced the renewal of the export duties on agricultural commodities. This means an increase of duties on the export of Soybean Oil, although the duties should have been abolished till 2019. This will also support the Soybean Oil prices. The future price development also depends a lot on the trade dispute between USA and China.

Sunflower Oil

Sonflowers

Prices in Europe and Ukraine increased significantly for early positions. Therefore, shipments in September are more expensive than shipments in November or December. This can be called inverse price structure. The duration of the critical supply situation is uncertain. In addition, the supply of Sunflower Oil is lower as usual as some oil mills are not receiving any deliveries by ship due to the low water levels.

Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed

Price for Rapeseed Oil did not change a lot in the last period. The European crop-prediction still estimates approx. 19.5 million tons. Various market participants expect a declining cultivation area of about 5 % for the upcoming year. The exceptional drought could also lead to further decreasing cultivation areas, especially in Germany. Australia also reports a smaller crop for 2018/2019. In total the strong demand of the Bio fuel sector leads to an unchanged stable price level.

Castor Oil

Castor

Currently an increase is seen in the sowings of cotton, maize and soybean, while sowing of groundnut, castor and pulses remain lower than last year. With current figures we will hardly achieve 1,4 million tons of seed. While 1,7 million tons of seed would be needed for a full season currently. With increased demand after the summer holidays, we should see price increases in September. The general trend remains tight.

Key products from the GUSTAV HEESS production in the USA

Almond Oil

The harvest of the Almonds has started with Nonpareil being the first variety which is almost completely harvested throughout the valley. Although farmers and the market were complaining about high worm damage, there appears to be almost no insect damage on the Almonds. Yields are looking good and are right within the ABC prediction. The demand is still very firm as well, even with all the news about tariffs.

Almond

Walnut Oil

Harvest will begin this month and the only bad news for the harvest right now would be rain. But there is zero chance of rain in the extended forecast of 10 days and the predicted temperatures are good as well.

Water supplies

Despite no rain in the short term weather forecast, the water levels in the reservoirs continue to exceed historical averages with the exception of the Lake Oroville which is still undergoing repairs.

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