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Tuesday, 20 November 2018
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Market Report November 2018
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General Oils and Fats complex

Soybean Oil

In the cultivation areas of the USA the last quantities are harvested, which is hindered by the current weather conditions. Some losses were reported, but the record harvest is still filling the silos in the Midwest, where the warehouse capacities are getting lower. The missing exports to China are leading to record stocks. This will lead to pressure on the prices. On the other hand, market participants are urgently waiting for an agreement of the trade war between the USA and China. This could lead to higher prices. Currently, the soybean oil prices are very attractive despite the stronger US Dollar.

Sunflower Oil

For sunflower oil there is still paid a premium on soy and palm oil. After latest estimates of the sunflower crops, which were higher again, prices are going to get under pressure. High oleic sunflower oil is still unreasonably high and there is almost no availability until the end of the year on the spot market. The first quarter also starts with very careful offers, which have a high premium on standard sunflower oil. It remains to be seen when the situation will improve. The supply for seeds to the European oil mills is still hindered by the extremely low water levels. This is also leading to higher prices.

Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed

European rapeseed Oil is still quoted at a high level, whereas the prices for Canadian rapeseed oil decreased due to the good harvests. Many market participants are expecting a bigger demand from China, which may lead to stable prices.

Sesame Oil

International prices have increased 15 % in the last quarter of 2018, resulting in an increase of 30% over last year. This price level is to be maintained for 2019, too.

Expectations for new crops:

- India reports a late and poor harvest

- Mexico and Africa present good progress, but cannot compensate the Indian quantities

- November will shed light on exact yields

- Demand from countries like China, Korea and the USA are steadily increasing

Sesame

Castor Oil

The crop of castor is estimated at around 1 – 1.1 million tons which is considerably less than last year. This would mean a reduction of 30 %. Since there is no carry over from last harvest, one expects scarcity with firm prices and probably supply shortfall.

Key products from the GUSTAV HEESS production in the USA

Almond Oil

Insect damage in the new crop appears to be 1.8% which is down from 2.35% a year ago. Kernel sizes are smaller than estimated, but, it is still very early for a final assessment. Handlers are saying the crop will not reach the estimate and will only be 2.35 billion lbs.

Almonds

Walnut Oil

Handlers here are convinced the crop will be lower than the estimation of 690,000 tons. The harvested Walnuts have a decent size and the quality is good.

Pistachio Oil

2018 crop is being reported as a total of 808 million lbs but there is no information about the quality of the new crop yet. Exports to Europe are down for the year, but exports to Asia tripled with China taking most of that product. Imports to Turkey have dropped significantly and it appears that the export to the Arab markets is now working directly.

Our Special Marula Oil as PDF-file
 
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